10 Music Industry Predictions for 2021

Happy New Year! Welcome to Pop of Colour’s annual list of music industry predictions for the coming year. 2021’s can only turn out more accurate than the year before, right? 

Prediction #1 The Rise Of Organic Sounds

When a culture goes through a time of collective stress, it looks to two places for comfort and artistic inspiration: the glamourized past, and nature.

In the fashion world, we’re seeing this with the popularity of leopard print and camouflage. In the music world, we’ve already seen the traditional sea shanty become the hottest trend on TikTok in January 2021, so who knows what else lies in store this year?

Prediction #2 Guitars Come Back Triumphantly

With stories in the news of iconic music stores and guitar manufacturers not doing well financially, it can be tempted to release our inner “grumpy grandpa” and grumble about how the “kids these days” don’t learnt to play instruments like we did, and instead prefer to play with their phones… Not quite.

Two years ago, I shared a study that showed that the fastest growing segment of the guitar buying world were young women. Add to that many mainstream artists (such as Machine Gun Kelly and Taylor Swift) going back to their roots, and the wins of country music in the digital landscape (with Morgan Wallen leading the charge), I could see some of these companies’ luck changing.

Prediction #3 Artist Fashion Becomes More Shameless

If we only leave the house to take out the trash, we may as well look fabulous doing so. 

In all seriousness, after a year of loungewear and pyjamas, artists and their fans are dying for an opportunity to dress up and express themselves through their wardrobes.

Prediction #4 Musicians Finally Realize Fans Have Other Interests

With venues shut down, musicians had to learn who they are when they aren’t performing. For many of us, this included trying out a bunch of hobbies - in my case, I attempted gardening, learnt to bake bread, and watched TV for the first time since childhood. 

So with their newly formed multi-faceted lives, some artists will finally grasp the concept that their fans also have other hobbies. And the clever ones are using them to build deeper connections with their existing fans, and making new ones.

Prediction #5 BandCamp Gets Its Long Overdue Glory

If any music-related brand shone in 2020, it was BandCamp. With their Fair Trade Music Policy and BandCamp Fridays - where artists take 100% of money home, they’ve positioned themselves as one of the most artist-friendly, innovative, and empathetic companies in the music industry. 

The next step is to make it a household name for the casual music fan. Let’s help them.

Prediction #6 Music Licensing Reform

With so many artists turning to live streaming last year, no one could turn a blind eye to the flaws in our patchwork, outdated music licensing system. For example, as of writing this article, Twitch, owned by Amazon does not pay royalties to artists whose music streamers use.

Earlier this year, music business guru Damian Keyes proposed the following solution: content creators pay an annual “creator’s license” - with the different channels or accounts weighed differently based on their popularity like the radio stations are with their market tiers. 

This creators license would give everyone a blanket license to use any piece of art in their content without you getting struck by a copyright claim. In exchange, 20% of the money that you would make from this content generated (YouTube video, Twitch Stream, podcast, etc) would go into a separate fund, then divided equally by the amount of other artists work use and paid out to them. If you don't ever use any other artists work in your own content, you get the money back end of year.
Where I would suggest we take it a step further is by incorporating blockchain technology so that every song by all is tagged with the contact info of the rights holders. Like that any other content creator who wants to use your song can ask you right away via phone app, you can give them an instant answer, and get paid via direct deposit.

Prediction #7 New Christmas Lyrics, Old Songs

As most long time readers of Pop of Colour know, I am a huge fan of Christmas. So, you can imagine my horror when last December, I entered a Starbucks where “Mack The Knife” was slotted into their holiday playlist. You know, the big band murder ballad?

Well, clearly playlist curator at Starbucks Corporate didn’t mind because it fit the vibe. So why not take things further? I’ll bet there are some public domain big band songs whose lyrics can easily be rewritten to be about winter romance, Santa Claus, or toy shopping - and most consumers would never even notice.

Prediction #8 Stans Ruin Everything

A good few years back, I wrote an article whose basic thesis was that the traditional album review would soon be a thing of the past. Music publications need access to artists more than artists need them, so why would the editors risk those relationships for a freelance journalist? However, I did not anticipate things would get this ugly.

I like to joke about how I follow the Billboard Hot 100 the way other guys follow sports - and with sports cancelled during the lockdown of 2020, it seems like many other people did too. 

The rise of “stans” - obsessive super fans who see their artist’s chart position as a seal of quality, not a sales metric - is nothing new. But the rise of cancel culture and the extent to which they’re willing to go from the comfort of their keyboards is. It’s now sadly commonplace for music critics to receive death threats for giving a beloved artist a less than perfect score. Some last year were even doxxed. 

Artists, social media has given you the gift of being able to build a two-way relationship with people to whom your music touches them to take action. Use your powers for good, and steer them towards volunteering in their communities, calling their grandparents, or registering to vote instead. 

Prediction #9 All Artists Are Political

The year 2020 showed all of us that it’s impossible to live our lives in a way that politics does not affect us whatsoever. 

Gone are the days where artists can stay silent on the pressing issues of the day. With the combination of almost every issue being intersectional and it being a job requirement to broadcast our everyday lives via social media, creatives have no choice but to take a stand up for what they believe.

Prediction #10 Italian Renaissance Patronage Returns

And finally, when the whole world was locked down and we were forced to stay home, where did the world turn, but to The Arts. I never want to hear anyone scoff at creatives while they spent their 2020 at home binge-watching Netflix, tuning into livestreams, discovering a new favourite podcast, watching pro-shots of stage musicals, and escaping into a novel.

During the Italian Renaissance (and well as long before and after), artists made a living with one or two clients, commissioning custom pieces of work and paying them handsomely. Somewhere in the last century, this business model fell out of favour in and was replaced by mass commodities being sold at low prices. With platforms like Patreon have been paving the way for a few years now, I’d say we’re due for another cultural shift.

It’s 2021, my dears. It can only go up from here.

Stay Colourful, 

- Clarence